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20121027
20121104
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KQED (PBS) 19
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English 19
Search Results 0 to 18 of about 19 (some duplicates have been removed)
? >> we have obama as a modest favorite still and i should say it is not my polling what we go is look at everyone easels poll and average them together and think about the electorial college if you look at ohio still, obama is ahead in most polls of ohio he is ahead in most polls of iowa, wisconsin, and nevada as well and those four states. >> rose: by two or three points. >> two or three-point not an overwhelming margin but you can look historically and how often does a candidate who has a two or three-point lead in an election, does he how often does he convert that to a win and the answer is about 75 percent of the time. >> rose: so you said 75 percent likely obama will be elected? >> that's right beuse the states are what we call the tipping point states that would swing the electorial college margin he has a two or three-point lead, so it is not for sure but we can use statistics and data that just look up how often those lead translate into a win. > > rose: zero so is critical point here is that many people say paul, david brooks wrote a column. >> sure. >> a you know basically
. >> colby? >> national tracking polls has of them close, but the key battleground states, obama still holds a lead. >> what is the ground game, mark? >> the organized effort over months to identify and not only support -- identified not only supporters, but leaners, and persuade them on how one by one retail basis. weeks before election day, you know who your voters are. you want to be sure you get the vote. >> in many of the battle ground states, obama has more field offices. >> it is down to micromanaging, micro-issuing these of votes. interestingly, the republicans had a better ground game in 2004, and a lot of people think that is why and they won that close election. it sort of fell into disrepair today are building it back up now, but i don't think they are anywhere near where obama is yet. >> there is another question. which candidate has the most d.c. asked to come most engaged, most dedicated supporters? >> that is a hard one to answer. clearly after the first debate, the republican party at everly and these as to support their. romney did do well compared to obama. there was disap
increasingly and a strong place and certainly tightening up. other polls show president obama with a slight lead. is really tough to read, and the notion has been thrown up in the air because of the storm. >> i think a split in the alleged tora college is as likely as me winning the lotto, so i do not think that is a real alternatives. -- a split in the electoral college is as likely as winning the lotto, so i do not think that is a real alternative. and what happens at that point? >> i think it is possible. if you look at the polls in these states, president is strong in a handful of states. it is not going to be much more than 280 or 285, and given the fact that his numbers are going to come down from where they were in 2008, he is probably not going to do as well as he did with the circumstances he had, and if you add governor romney and a lot of red states, there is a possibility of one candidate, probably rendezvous' anymore popular votes and greeted romney winning popular votes and obama winning electoral votes. democrats are going to immediately say we have been here before. al gore
is in a dead heat. polls give obama a slight edge. some of the other states are close. nobody knows what will happen. what we do know is that romney had a little bit of momentum. he was closing gaps, then everything stopped and the election was put on hold. president obama, you can feel the momentum on his side right now. we will have to see how the election plays out. sandy, beyond being a natural disaster, will always be part of the american electoral history. >> sandy has blunted some of the more bitter partisanship. now. we have six days left until the elections. will we hear a different town when the present its back on the campaign trail? >> slightly different. the president will want to stay optimistic, not suddenly descend into taken some cheap shots or one liners. he is now playing commander in chief of an ongoing crisis. remember, this is not about a day when a storm hits. this will go on for weeks and months. i think you will have an optimistic tone for the president. mitt romney will be going after obama more through his sarah gets. he will have to discuss why there are bette
, hence why they're tied in the polls. gwen: we've heard i am the candidate of change. we've heard it more because barack obama made it such a big deal four years ago. and mitt romney is trying to appropriate that. what's even more interesting about this closing argument is after the most negative campaign that we've seen probably in our lifetimes they are closing with a very soft sale to independent voters saying i can break the gridlock. it's ok that there are republicans, democrats. i'm going to be the one that can get us beyond that. it's two things, it's to appeal to independents. but another piece of it is the growing realization that congress is going to be divided regardless of who is elected as president and this next president has to deal with a divided government. gwen: i wonder how much of this is about economic development and the jobs numbers can play into that. people are saying they feel good about the economy even though they don't trust the president. >> i see these job numbers as basically being status quo. they can affect things in a big way. the decimal point kicked up
much smaller gains. mr. obama has consist enly lead in the polls here and still holds an average of a 2 to 3 point lead. with the resurgence of the auto industry, new steal production and the promise of large natural gas reserves, you can sense the optimism here in northeast ohio. but a big question now is whether democratic strongholds like youngstown will give mr. obama enough margin to carry the state and stay in the white house. mr. obama's popularity here is maintained by strong support from autoworkers like union president green. >> in march everything almost came to a halt, right. the contractors we had in the plant were backing off. there were helicopters flying over our plant taking inventory, people walking through our plant with clipboards taking inventory. they were going to liquidate our facility. that's a fact. so mitt romney can air brush this all i wants. that's what was happening at the time. the fact that president obama stood up and said i'm going take a bet on the american workers and we're going to invest in this when it wasn't a popular thing to do, absolutely he d
and the questions being posed to mitt romney about fema funding. >> belva: president obama get a bump and rating out of his handling -- >> in the last week, we've seen a sea change in the presidential race, obama not only got a bump in the polls, no doubt about it, but the fact he got the support of michael bloomberg and chris christie -- >> chris christie hasn't endorsed him. >> the fact is, he said he endorsed his role -- >> his leadership. >> his leadership, and i think that was very critical. it did raise the whole issue of, what is the role of government? and i think a lot of people stood back and watched some of the destruction there, i think the affects of sandy are going to be talked about for a long time on this presidential race, coming where they did when romney has had some momentum going into it. we'll see if he does coming out of it. >> >> belva: i have to return to odette here. we talked about polls. where are issues that these groups of any of the grouches -- . >> looking beyond the numbers, they were able to glean direct insight from journalists in a weekly election series that we d
new tracking poll which came out at 5:00 today showed both candidates at 49%. there are other polls that show it slightly different. but every indication is that nationally this is a very close race. the question is where do things stand exactly in the battle ground states? the obama campaign has been insistent that they continue to have leads in enough battle ground states to win the election. the romney campaign insists that they are in a position to be able to overtake the president in a number of these states. so, we're playing in part a game of spin. somebody is going to be proven right or wrong. we know that some of these states have tightened up from where they were a month ago. i think that as susan said part of the issue is who is going to be able to get their voters out at this point, under what could be some difficult circumstances? >> woodruff: susan, how are you reading these polls right now? >> i'm struck over and over again by the damage that president obama did to his campaign in that first debate. it's like your mother always told you, you never get a second chance
can grow. >> reporter: with polls in iowa showing president obama with a thin but steady lead, it's likely that both candidates will try to tap into the growing number of latino voters. >> brown: online, you can watch a video profile of the town of perry, iowa, on our politics page. >> woodruff: and to the analysis of shields and brooks. that's syndicated columnist mark shields and "new york times" columnist david brooks. so one of the things he said was to to him immigration reform is the second big, and yet it barely comes up. he is not ready for obvious rrntion it is a tough issue and mitt romney is not for obvious reason sois think if obama is re-elected i'm not sure, it is to the going to be a top priority. >> re-elected? >> re-elected, just gave me a cold chill. >> maybe in the second term it will be. if obama is re-elected he will be. and i suspect they would be happy to go back to george w. bush was trying to do a few years ago. but it is a tragedy we haven't really talked about because it is much harder to get something passed. >> how do you see it. >> i think the republi
he even opposes a clean energy tax credit for wind. obama, i think, is just misreading the polls entirely. the latest polling shows that -- i think ken is right. when global warming becomes local that the public becomes concerned about it. that's why the polls in the last two years have shown the public is increasingly concerned and this is particularly true of independent voters also. they are very concerned about their local pollution but also the extreme weather that they've been seeing. who could miss $14 billion extreme weather disasters in this country last year and over $7 this year. everyone sees the weather is going crazy and it's affecting them. it's not going to be affecting distant people in a distant land a distant time from now. it's happening here and now. >> suarez: joseph romm, kenneth green, gentlemen, thank you both. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> suarez: we've rounded up all of our reporting on these issues on our "coping with climate change" page on our web site. take a look. >> ifill: and we turn to the final days of the presidential contest. among the key s
you do when you're four days out from election day, judy. but looking at the maps and the polling it's clear that president obama still has a narrow advantage in terms of how you get to 270 electoral votes. two big developments to me have happened in the last 48 hours. the first one is the kind of ads governor romney is running. you mentioned one of them in your piece, that's the one in florida linking president obama to chavez and castro. the other one in ohio where governor romney for the first time brings up the auto issue where he's been battered on. neither of those ads were released to the press, they were just put on the air. that, as you know, is a giveaway that they don't want that ad to be written about, they want voters to see it. and that to me says they still have to move numbers in both florida and ohio and the second big thing, judy, the fact that governor romney on sunday is going to be in the philadelphia suburbs, that really speaks to the fact that they're looking for a way to 270 besides ohio. >> woodruff: margaret, you cover the white house, you're talking to them
contradicted the image barack obama has sought to portray of him, reckless, bombing people, putting troops in syria. that is why you are seeing the steady momentum of romney which as of today puts him up in the gallup poll 5. >> el more? >> you can cite the national poll all you want but the election is all about ohio and the president is still doing well there. mr. romney went into this debate not wanting to win, and he didn't. but he wanted to reassure people he wasn't going back to the george w. bush ollis policies. no more iraqs. and he wanted to assure women he was not a war monger. >> uh-huh. >> talking about a peaceful planet and gender quality in the middle east. it is astounding how he has shifted his policies. in fairness he has two sets of advisers. reasonable people working for him and some who would like to reenact the bush years. i think he hears from beth the realists and that additionallists won out certainly in this debate. >> i notes you characterized him as mr. romney. the president did that also during the debate. >> governor romney. >> are you trying to deny him his ho
Search Results 0 to 18 of about 19 (some duplicates have been removed)

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